History Rarely Repeats?

Did the cycling world actually raise an eyebrow when news emerged that Tadej Pogačar was blowing off altitude training and heading home after the Tour de Suisse? First off he basically bludgeoned the competition there by putting more than six plus minutes into the second- place finisher. And secondly, he has a fiancé back in Monaco recuperating from a nasty crash. Well if anyone did pause momentarily, then they clearly aren’t trading on Kalshi.com.

Because that prediction market has a clear green, money-colored line that points at a 100% chance of Tadej’s standing atop the final Tour de France podium in 2026, while the graphics associated with Jonas Vingegaard’s chances couldn’t sink any lower.

Now there was a time when pro cycling speculators would quickly look at a Suisse win as a black mark against any chances of victory in Paris. After all, before Egan Bernal managed it in 2019 (with overall TDF favorite Chris Froome absent…), no had pulled off that rare Suisse-Tour double since Merckx in 1974.

More consistently reliable is Paris-Nice, where history reports at least a handful of “Race to the Sun” winners who managed to pace their seasons accordingly for a potential triumph in July. Bernal won that race as well in 2019, making him also the only rider not named Eddy to put together that particular triple crown. The stats are worse when you look to Tirreno-Adriatico.

In that instance, only Tadej and Cadel Evans have parlayed their early season form at the Italian classic into a Tour winning year. 2011 was a huge year for Cadel, who not only claimed both those palmares but also eked out an 18 second victory over Tony Martin to win that year’s Tour de Romandie. If he had somehow been able to turn in a better time trial performance at the Dauphine, he might have bested Bradley Wiggins and added another jewel to his epic season.

If we look to the Monuments, the Tour doubles are equally thin. Milan-San Remo? Only three. Flanders? Only Two. Liège-Bastogne-Liège? Only four. And Paris-Roubaix? Well, more than you think. While Merckx is the only man who can claim all those pairings, Bernard Hinault, Octave Lapize (1910) and Louis Trousselier (1905) also managed to win the Hell of the North the same year they put away Tour de France victories. And since you’re probably also wondering about the Rainbow Jersey…it’s only happened thrice before Tadej’s 2024 and 2025 World Championship wins – to Merckx (1974), Stephen Roche (1987), and Greg Lemond (1989).

Trainspotters and other annoying people who need to vindicate themselves on bar stools and group rides will tell you that these are different skill sets and that those sorts of flukes should be jotted down as just that.

Not this time. Barring accidents, Pogačar’s could be the only rider in history to pull down three one day classics and the Tour de France in a single season. Suddenly that Tour de Suisse win feels almost insignificant by comparison. We’d argue that this particular stack of victories would be even more impressive than potentially joining the “Club of Five” if he indeed brings home this year’s final yellow jersey. And If he achieves that distinction, what’s left? The Vuelta and Paris-Roubaix? Well let’s not forget that the Slovenian is only 27 years old.