2026 Tour de France Favorites

Just two teams are going into the Tour de France with all of their weight thrown behind one general classification leader, and there’s no prizes for guessing that those squads are UAE Team Emirates-XRG and Team Visma-Lease a Bike, writes Peter Cosssins.

Their respective leaders, Tadej Pogaçar and Jonas Vingegaard, have filled the top two places on the final podium in each of the past five seasons and have won the last six Tours between them, the Slovenian claiming four successes to the Dane’s two. There’s been no indication that their dominance is likely to end during the first half of this season. They’ve racked 25 victories combined and won pretty much everything they’d set their sights on.

Backing them up are two teams that are mixture of Tour debutants and proven warriors. Pogačar’s support crew have a slight edge in terms of success this season, that advantage largely down to Isaac Del Toro’s stellar showing in the run-up to his first Tour appearance. Visma, meanwhile, are filling the large hole left by Wout van Aert with Davide Piganzoli, who finished top 10 at the Giro d’Italia when riding in support of the victorious Vingegaard. The young Italian should be a big asset on the mountain stages, if that impressive Giro ride hasn’t sapped him too much.

Elsewhere, the other teams with their sights on the final podium have hedged their bets, and with good reason. Decathlon CMA CGM have opted to ease the pressure that’s sure to come to bear on their 19-year-old leader Paul Seixas during his debut in his national tour by pairing him with another Tour newbie, Dutch sprinter Olav Kooij. Both have performed well this year, Kooij bagging four wins since his recent return from long-time injury in May, the last of them against most of the very best sprinters around at the Tour of Belgium. In Cees Bol, Dan Hoole and Tiesj Benoot, Kooij has a short but extremely powerful lead-out train.

Seixas will also been leaning heavily on this trio, particularly Benoot, who was in great form at the Tour Auvergne Rhône Alpes (TARA – the Dauphiné as was). There are all kinds of question marks hanging over Seixas, not least whether the heavy crash that put him out of that same race has affected his readiness for the Tour. That setback seems to have lowered expectations, which should be a good thing for the youngster.

Seixas has himself outlined relatively modest ambitions. “I’m not setting myself a more specific goal because I’m heading into the unknown, having never raced an event this long and demanding before. I hope I can play an active role in the race, continue to improve, and enjoy the experience along the way. It’s the race I’ve always dreamed of, and I know how fortunate I am to be taking part in it so early in my career.”

A top 10 finish would be good, while a place in the top five would add some fuel to the Seixashype train. If he were to sustain a challenge Pogačar and Vingegaard, even if only in the opening week or so of the race, French hopes that they’ve found their next Tour champion will be bolstered.

Turning to Lidl-Trek, they’re throwing the kitchen sink at the race. Like Decathlon, they’ve gone for a GC contender and sprinter as co-leaders, Juan Ayuso and Mads Pedersen filling those spots. The rest of the roster is high-grade too. Derek Gee-West is in the line-up after finishing fifth in May’s Giro won by Vingegaard, while Mattias Skjelmose and Carlos Verona should also provide strong backing in the mountains. Recently re-crowned American champion Quinn Simmons will be a useful asset there too. In fact, Simmons is looking increasingly like a US version of the Grand Tour Wout van Aert, a rider capable of prodigiously powerful feats wherever needed, a characteristic that Pedersen will appreciate too.

Some have questioned Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe’s decision to go down the twin leadership path as well. However, this selection always seemed inevitable given the possibilities offered by Remco Evenepoel and Florian Lipowitz, who’ve filled the third step on the podium in the last two years, the Belgian in 2024 and the German last year. Red Bull have opted against picking a sprinter, enabling them to pack the rest of their line-up with strong rouleurs who are good on the climbs and climbers who can excel in the high mountains. It’s hard to foresee Evenepoel or Lipowitz upsetting the big two favorites, but at least one of them should be well placed to take advantage if an opportunity to do so does arise.

The other team you’d expect to group among the likely contenders for a podium place are Netcompany-Ineos. Unfortunately, as a result of the absence of Oscar Onley following his frightening crash at the TARA that left the Scot with a dislocated shoulder, the British outfit once again look like a Grand Tour-contending team without a leader of that same quality. Egan Bernal was that rider until injuries and crashes set him back, while Kévin Vauquelin, seventh last year, is a good bet for the top 10 but lacks the climbing talent to push for the podium.

But what a line-up they’ve got the opening day’s team time trial in Barcelona. Filippo Gannaand Tobias Foss have both been world time trial champions, Josh Tarling has finished on the podium in that event, while Dorian Godon, Thymen Arensman, Michał Kwiatkowski and Vauquelin are all TTT powerhouses. Victory and the yellow jersey in Barcelona would be some compensation for Onley’s absence.