Is It Over?

Is it over?

That was one of the prevailing questions after Tadej Pogačar marched over top the Col du Tourmalet and put nearly three minutes into his longstanding rival Jonas Vingegaard. With so many stages left to race, it was possibly the worst of outcomes for the television commentators whose job it is to keep the cycling faithful tuned in for the remaining ride towards the Champs-Élysées in Paris. Then there are other, more pragmatic voices.

“I think so…I think it’s over. I think Vingegaard is going to be worried about hanging on to second place.”

Frankie Andreu has either been riding in the Tour or commentating on the great race and similar events for more than 25 years. As stage six unfolded and Pogačar’s UAE Emirates-XRG squad began to dismantle the nearly eight-minute advantage that had freely given over to Torstein Træen, Andreau was concerned that not enough was being done to minimize the damage to Vingegaard.

“What I didn’t understand was why didn’t that first big chase group did not rider harder together to bring back Vingegaard today. And if you notice Pogačar will go and then Vingegaard will respond, but then he will look over his shoulder looking for help. It also happened on the day when Del Toro won the stage. He’s turning around to see who’s there to see if somebody else is going to pull through or help him. He was flipping his elbow trying to get (Paul) Seixas to pull through.”

But of course, there’s still multiple opportunities for the dynamics of the race to shift. The climbing that lays ahead is nothing to sniff at, and there’s always possibility that Vingegaard could repeat his performance at the 2023 individual time trial into Combloux where the Danish rider put 1:38 into his rival. And as there is every year, the possibility of a catastrophic crash changing the entire makeup of the general classification is always hovering. Or Vingegaard could also just find his legs.

“The thing is Vingegaard could get better. Maybe he’s not a guy for the 100-degree heat. Maybe that’s not not ideal for him. And so he could get to the Alps where it’s a little bit cooler and start to feel good.”

But the reality is that Pogačar isn’t the only obstacle in Vingegaard’s way. The strength his Mexican lieutenant has shown throughout the first week of racing can’t be ignored either.

“Del Toro is super strong, and their team can control it. I think when we get to the Alps, (UAE) can send Del Toro up the road and see what Vingegaard does. Is he going to try to ride for second or is he just going to sit next to Pogačar? Because I think UAE can get first and second. The way Vingegaard was going and the way some of these other guys are going, I think they can bump him off the podium.”

For Pogačar’s part, he was not yet betraying any over confidence going into the first rest day of the Tour. Speaking to the media after the end of stage 9, the Slovenian rider said:

“I hope tomorrow is calm day and we have a nice easy spin. The main goal is to keep the yellow, but sometimes the best defense is to attack so you never know. The day after rest is really tough for our team again, so we’ll see.”

After nine days of racing, the betting world has pushed the odds on Pogačar to win it all to right about 93%. He seems untouchable, and at just 27 years-old, the personal stamp he could place on the world of cycling might go unmatched for generations to come. Like many other Tour watchers, Andreau feels fairly convinced that what the world is witnessing in this young rider may be the pinnacle of the sport.

“I never really got to watch Eddie Merckx race, but Pogačar is definitely heads above everybody else. He can do whatever he wants.”